Investment bank BNP Paribas recently hosted an event featuring Dr. Tim Farrar, a prominent expert in the satellite sector and Direct-to-Device (D2D) services.

During the event, Farrar claimed that SpaceX's Starlink is approximately 18 months ahead of its competitors in D2D technology, with plans to launch texting and data capabilities by the end of 2025.

Currently, Starlink boasts nearly 2 million subscribers in the U.S., with a significant portion coming from traditional broadband alternatives, charging $120 monthly for 300-400GB of usage.

To achieve a projected 5 million subscribers by 2028, Starlink may need to consider reducing its prices, as Farrar believes that return on investment is not a primary concern for the company.

The report indicates that additional satellite capacity could adversely affect traditional cable operators, with Starlink poised to capture a substantial share of industry growth by 2028.

Farrar expressed skepticism regarding the ability of incumbent cable operators to engage in a price war with Starlink, citing high satellite manufacturing and maintenance costs.

He also noted that Verizon and AT&T's partnership with AST is a strategic effort to enhance competition in the D2D market, driven by fears of Starlink monopolizing the sector.

Farrar suggested that the new C-band spectrum, which the FCC plans to auction, may not significantly benefit SpaceX, but could be advantageous for T-Mobile US, as it would not enable AT&T and Verizon to catch up in mid-band 5G holdings.

The FCC's upcoming vote on opening new C-band spectrum for auction could free up about 100 MHz for geostationary satellite operators, with the auction expected to be valued at around $30 billion.

Farrar discussed the potential for D2D networks to utilize either terrestrial or MSS satellite spectrum, highlighting MSS as a viable alternative due to its established global access.

He mentioned ongoing negotiations between satellite industry participants and EchoStar concerning the unclaimed 2GHz band, with expectations for future agreements.

Lastly, Farrar predicted that D2D services would likely remain a niche solution primarily catering to rural areas, constrained by technological and spectral limitations.