Recovery is projected to be slow, with stabilization unlikely before March 2026, contingent on Chinese demand revival, policy shifts, and effective international coordination on trade remedies.

Global market effects include saturation, altered pricing dynamics, and meaningful pressure on Japan’s four major trading houses across metals, with quarterly profit declines and longer recovery horizons.

Global coordination remains challenging, underscoring the need for a multilateral anti-dumping framework, broad product coverage, and monitoring to prevent circumvention and substitution in markets.

Japan’s supply-chain reorganization focuses on non-Chinese sourcing, stronger regional partnerships, and improved risk management and hedging to navigate volatility.

Regional markets show Asia-Pacific pressures from Vietnam and India as persistent imports continue, while the EU pursues anti-dumping investigations and provisional measures, and Japan steps up anti-dumping actions against Chinese and South Korean steel.

China’s steel exports stay elevated through 2025, continuing the 2024 record pace of over 100 million tons annually, fueled by structural oversupply from weak domestic demand and unchanged capacity.

China’s overcapacity, backed by government stimulus, is driving a shift from domestic-focused production to an export-led strategy to protect jobs and cash flow.

Export strategies include circumventing trade barriers, diversifying into new markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, and using product classification changes and third-country transshipment to dodge tariffs.

Copper markets present a diversification opportunity for Japanese trading houses as copper prices hit record highs and are expected to stay strong, potentially offsetting weaknesses in steel.