Bitcoin shows structural upside potential, with a Fibonacci-based relief target near $89.8K, yet momentum is limited by negative funding and ongoing selling pressure.

Bitcoin saw renewed demand on March 13 as spot ETF inflows of about 570 BTC (roughly $41.9 million) supported a rally toward the $74,000 region and testing the prior week’s high.

Market skepticism remains, with negative funding rates in March and a renewed sell-off as Bitcoin approached $73.9K, signaling a bearish bias among traders.

Ethereum attracted inflows and the overall crypto market cap rose about 4.4%, though profit-taking emerged as prices pressed near local highs.

The report highlights two threads: stubborn pessimism despite occasional rallies, and a potential deeper price drop in 2026 with possible opportunities in the following year.

Midterm election years historically bring notable drawdowns, with BTC averages around a 56% decline and the S&P 500 about 16%, implying a potential move toward $39K by year-end if trends hold.

Historically, BTC has performed better in post-election years, averaging roughly a 54% gain over the three years following elections.

Investor sentiment remains extremely fearful, with the 30-day Crypto Fear and Greed Index around 10%, a level linked to past crashes and contributing to rallies being sold off.