A bullish scenario suggests that a government reopening, trade de-escalation, and continued ETF inflows could push Bitcoin towards $125,761, while a bearish scenario involving prolonged shutdowns and trade escalation could see prices drop to $100,000.

Despite the recent downturn, Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend supported by bullish technical indicators, with nearly three years of continuous growth on weekly charts.

Market sentiment is influenced by expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts, which bolster ETF inflows, though concerns about the US government shutdown and lack of key economic data temper optimism.

Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, falling to a low of $107,486 before closing at $114,559, representing a 5.82% daily loss and an 8.6% weekly decline amid geopolitical tensions and trade war fears involving the US and China.

Major ETF providers like iShares and Fidelity experienced significant inflows, while Grayscale and ARK saw outflows, reflecting mixed investor sentiment but overall strong demand for ETFs amid volatile conditions.

The broader cryptocurrency market has recently declined due to geopolitical tensions involving Trump, China, tariffs, and taxes, which have also impacted major stock indexes like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, while gold and silver are performing well as safe havens.

A record $20,000 candlestick in Bitcoin was triggered by high trading volume and short liquidations, causing a market cap drop of approximately $380 billion before a V-shaped recovery, according to the Kobeissi Letter.

Price corrections after significant gains are natural, and there is potential capital rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana, which should be monitored against Bitcoin's performance.

Despite recent declines, US Bitcoin spot ETF inflows remain strong, totaling $2.72 billion for the week ending October 10 and $4.29 billion in October, helping to prevent Bitcoin from falling below $100,000 and indicating sustained investor interest.

Bitcoin's recent price action shows it is currently below the 50-day EMA but above the 200-day EMA, indicating short-term bearish momentum while maintaining a longer-term bullish outlook. Key technical levels to watch include support at $117,000 and potential support at $110,000, with a possible decline to $107,000-$110,000 if these levels break. A break above $115,000 could target new highs around $124,000, whereas falling below $110,000 might lead to support at $100,000.

Despite short-term bearish signals, the overall structure remains bullish, with a weekly fair value gap at $86,000-$92,000 and a bullish continuation target at $124,000, supported by technical indicators and market resilience.

Upcoming key events, including US lawmakers returning to vote on a stopgap funding bill, US-China trade negotiations at the APEC Summit, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, could significantly influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.