Ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, the Lula administration is positioning the country as a climate leader, aiming to reach zero deforestation by 2030 as part of an intensified effort to protect the Amazon.

Environment Minister Marina Silva credits the recent dip in deforestation to tougher enforcement, expanded satellite monitoring, and tighter inter-agency coordination, noting a roughly 50% reduction since 2023.

Silva also cautions that achieving zero deforestation by 2030 remains a difficult, ongoing challenge tied to policy execution and economic realities.

The government says stronger enforcement and higher investment are driving results, with Ibama issuing more flora-related infractions, increasing fines, and embargoing areas—Amazon notices, fines, and embargoes all rising notably.

Experts acknowledge that extreme weather and fires tempered gains, though without them the deforestation rate might have been even lower.

INPE’s Prodes report shows a fourth straight yearly drop in deforestation, marking the best result since 2014 as part of a multi-year downward trend.

The same report notes the trend as the best in eleven years, underscoring continued progress even amid some controversial environmental policy areas.

The report also notes that the overall reduction comes amid ongoing debates over policies such as Petrobras-related exploration at the Amazon river mouth.

Environmental groups accept the progress but warn maintenance will depend on sustained action, economic alternatives, and stronger emissions controls across sectors.

Lower deforestation reduces transition risks for commodity sourcing and may support sustainability-linked debt and green sovereign issuance, aligning with EU and US deforestation-free import expectations.

The government frames its approach as enforcing environmental law while aligning with economic goals, including integrated policing and financial tracking of supply-chain violations.

Deforestation largely stems from clear-cutting (about 60%), with vegetation degradation from fires accounting for ~38%, and degradation affecting roughly 2,203 square kilometers in the last year.