Saudi Non-Oil Growth Slows to 9-Month Low Amid Rising Costs and Geopolitical Tensions

March 3, 2026
Saudi Non-Oil Growth Slows to 9-Month Low Amid Rising Costs and Geopolitical Tensions
  • New orders surged in February, supported by rising domestic sales, favorable government policies, stronger consumer spending, enhanced digital initiatives, and collaborative client projects, while international orders grew at a slower pace.

  • Order activity remained a primary growth driver, with government support, digital development, and client collaborations expanding both domestic and international sales, the latter rising for a seventh consecutive month but more gradually.

  • Analysts adjusted forecasts in response to evolving conditions, with JPMorgan trimming its 2026 Gulf non-oil growth outlook and its Saudi Arabia outlook due to ongoing uncertainty about the figures.

  • Cost pressures rose as supplier and metal prices increased, but a fall in fuel payments helped limit overall purchase-price inflation; selling charges climbed near the steepest pace since May 2023.

  • Wage-driven cost pressures fed through to higher selling prices, with inflation near its fastest since May 2023, driven by stronger supplier charges and metals costs alongside lower fuel payments.

  • External risk remained as Iran’s retaliatory strikes disrupted Gulf airports and ports, affecting regional markets.

  • Delivery times shortened, signaling improved supply chains as input purchases rose sharply and vendor coordination improved with rising workloads.

  • Input purchases accelerated and supply chains became more efficient through operational changes and vendor shifts, contributing to the best delivery times in nine months.

  • Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector growth slowed in February to a nine-month low, with the Riyad Bank PMI at 56.1, indicating continued expansion but at a softer pace.

  • Naif Al-Ghaith of Riyad Bank noted that the non-oil private sector stayed in expansion territory, though the pace of output growth was the slowest since August.

  • The PMI reading confirmed February expansion at 56.1, still well above the 50.0 threshold despite deceleration.

  • Robust domestic demand and steady project approvals supported PMI strength, underscoring ongoing diversification away from oil dependence.

Summary based on 3 sources


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Saudi firms boost hiring and pay even as PMI slips to nine-month low

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Saudi firms boost hiring and pay even as PMI slips to nine-month low

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