The data come from the Insa weekly survey for Bild am Sonntag conducted January 12–16, 2026, with 1,202 respondents.

The broader context includes potential coalition scenarios and the practical effects of the 5% electoral threshold on seat allocation.

Overall political mood remains stable with no major shifts; CDU/CSU edges up by one point and AfD’s rise appears to have stalled.

Current standings show SPD at 14%, Greens 12%, Left 11%, FDP 4%, BSW 4%, and Other 4%.

The Sunday poll indicates the Union narrowing the gap to AfD, with CDU/CSU at 25% and AfD at 26%.

A schwarz-rot-grün coalition would fail to achieve a majority if FDP and BSW fail to enter parliament.

Around 12% of votes would be wasted on parties below the 5% threshold under the current distribution.

In a hypothetical election, CDU/CSU and SPD together would not form a majority according to the latest poll.