Amid the government shutdown blackout, ADP estimated the US private sector added 42,000 jobs in the most recent month, offering the first snapshot of labor market health.

Economists and analysts noted the ADP figure, while higher than expectations, should be treated with caution as an imperfect proxy for the official data.

Information services and several other sectors slipped, with declines in professional and business services, other services, and manufacturing signaling uneven sector performance.

Fed officials, even after a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, remained wary of the labor market’s strength as a factor in policy decisions.

This is an evolving story; updates will follow as new data emerges.

Experts cautioned that ADP data are noisy and should not replace official metrics, though they can inform short-term decisions.

Revisions to prior months reduced September job losses to 29,000 and showed August losses at 3,000, suggesting a milder decline than initially thought.

Wages continued to rise even as overall job growth slowed, with pay up 4.5% year over year for stayers and 6.7% for job switchers.

Analysts noted that a 42,000 monthly pace is unlikely to outpace population growth, implying ongoing slack and modest wage dynamics, and it informs but does not dictate Fed rate expectations.

Large firms drove growth, while small and mid-sized firms shed jobs, signaling a shift away from smaller employers.

All net job creation came from firms with 250+ employees, which added 76,000 jobs; small businesses continued to shrink hiring by about 34,000.

Inflation remained stubborn, with CPI around 3% annually—the highest since January—while unemployment hovered in the mid-4% range in recent data.