Official data tout progress under the fourteenth Five-Year Plan across eight areas, yet critics question reliability and note limited real-world improvements for everyday people.

China is at a decisive moment as it drafts its fifteenth Five-Year Plan amid a slowing economy and a real estate crisis, with growth easing to around 4.8% in the third quarter and youth unemployment near 19% in August, signaling deeper strains.

The overarching message is to liberalize markets and rebalance policies so that short-term stabilization sits alongside long-term structural reforms to avoid prolonged stagnation.

There is a central tension between Xi Jinping’s pursuit of national rejuvenation and the imperative to unleash market forces; without reforms, stagnation could deepen and social tensions from inequality may rise.

The fourth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee highlighted economic policy and the plan’s recommendations, while recognizing a need for short-term stimulus amid structural headwinds.

Authorities have used fiscal stimulus and monetary easing to spur investment, but a credit crunch and weak domestic demand limit effectiveness, suggesting that supply currently exceeds demand.

Slowdown is driven by post-pandemic effects, a continued real estate slump, and U.S. tariffs that have sharply reduced exports to America, even though some regions show export gains that do not fully offset the loss in demand from the U.S.

Analysts warn the fifteenth plan may emphasize industrial transformation and long-term targets over concrete market liberalization, risking a delayed rebound if market mechanisms remain constrained.

The plan’s success could shape Xi’s political trajectory, and diplomacy—especially Japan-China relations amid broader U.S.–China tensions—adds complexity to policy implementation.