Patent cliffs for semaglutide begin in major markets in 2026, paving the way for generics and biosimilars, while international bodies and the US are negotiating to lower prices and broaden access.

In the US, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate obesity prescriptions, with Lilly capturing roughly 60–70% in 2025 and Novo 30–40%; head-to-head data indicate Lilly’s injection achieves about 47% greater weight loss than Wegovy.

A wave of new entrants and next-generation therapies—such as Lilly’s retatrutide and Novo’s CagriSema and Amycretin—emerges as patients who discontinue treatment tend to regain weight, underscoring the need for durable, long-term solutions.

Companies are pursuing defensive patent strategies, with Novo filing over 320 secondary patent applications and Lilly holding tirzepatide patents into the mid-2030s to delay generics and protect exclusivity.

The overall outlook anticipates intensified competition in 2026 and beyond, as vaccines and treatments move toward more affordable, scalable, and durable obesity therapies across global markets.

Lilly’s market capitalization has topped $1 trillion, while Novo’s market value has declined from a 2024 peak, prompting cost-cutting measures and a leadership change to sharpen execution.

Novo Nordisk has introduced an oral Wegovy in the United States priced at $149 per month for cash patients, aiming to capture over a third of the obesity drug market by 2030, while Eli Lilly’s oral Orforglipron is on track for FDA approval by March 2026.

In emerging markets, prices are expected to fall, expanding the addressable market, with India and China as key focus areas through local partnerships and upcoming generics or near-generics.

Global demand for GLP-1 drugs is rising, with US sales expected to grow from about $22.8 billion in 2025 to $68.5 billion by 2033, driving expansion of production capacity and new factories.