Concerns are rising among high-ranking Russian officials regarding NATO's collective defense effectiveness, which could heighten the risk of military confrontations in the near future.

Amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia is intensifying efforts to influence the upcoming German elections, utilizing pro-Russian and anti-Western narratives to create societal divisions.

The German domestic intelligence agency, Verfassungsschutz, has identified disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and sabotage as tactics likely employed by foreign actors to manipulate public opinion and undermine electoral integrity.

In response to these threats, the BfV has established a task force, collaborating with national and international partners to counter potential interference, particularly in the cyber and information sectors.

Recent cyberattacks have targeted major German political parties, including the SPD and CDU, with links traced back to Russian hacker groups such as APT28 and Ghostwriter.

The BfV warns that foreign influence can be exerted through various channels, including bilateral talks and think tanks, supporting specific individuals and movements to achieve strategic objectives.

Analysts suggest that Russia may pursue aggressive actions in the Baltics or Arctic, potentially deploying forces under the guise of protecting Russian minorities, which could trigger NATO's collective defense response.

The agency also highlights the risk of sabotage against critical infrastructure, particularly in light of increased tensions following the Ukraine conflict.

Kahl noted that President Putin aims to undermine mainstream political figures in Germany while supporting fringe parties that align with his propaganda efforts.

In a show of solidarity and preparedness, Germany plans to temporarily station Patriot air defense systems in Poland to protect logistics crucial for military support to Ukraine.

If Russia were to attack a NATO member and the alliance fails to respond decisively, it could enable Russia to achieve its strategic goals without facing significant consequences.

Kahl emphasized that the Kremlin believes the West struggles to respond effectively to multiple global conflicts, which may embolden Russia's aggressive actions.