A recent study warns that humanity is on a perilous trajectory toward breaching 16 critical climate tipping points, which could lead to long-term environmental damage if fossil fuel emissions are not drastically reduced.

Published on April 23, 2025, in the journal Earth System Dynamics, this research was conducted by scientists from the University of Exeter and the University of Hamburg.

The study indicates that under a scenario where global temperatures rise by 2.8°C by the end of the century, there is a 62% average probability of triggering these tipping points, with nine of them having over a 50% chance of being activated.

While the study reassures that breaching tipping points in regions like the Amazon and permafrost may not trigger further cascading effects, it underscores the urgent need for accelerated action to mitigate risks.

Utilizing five socioeconomic pathways to model outcomes, the researchers found that drastically reducing emissions to below 2°C could significantly lower the risk of crossing these tipping points.

Despite the compelling evidence and public pressure for climate action, political momentum in the U.S. has shifted towards fossil fuel expansion under President Donald Trump, who has reversed several key climate policies.

This research aligns with increasing global demands for climate accountability and comes just ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, where 89% of people are advocating for stronger governmental action against climate change.

Lead author Jakob Deutloff emphasizes that there is still an opportunity to avert catastrophic outcomes by transitioning to a sustainable future with lower emissions, as breaching some tipping points may not necessarily lead to a cascade effect on others.

The authors stress the critical importance of rapid greenhouse gas emission reductions, asserting that the next few decades will be pivotal in determining whether these tipping points will be crossed.

The study evaluates the likelihood of triggering significant tipping points, including the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, thawing permafrost, and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest.