Enten warned that if Republicans continue to lose independents at this rate, they will struggle to maintain control of the House of Representatives, creating a favorable scenario for House Democrats.

He further stated that the House GOP is mistaken if they believe Trump's falling approval ratings won't impact their electoral prospects, labeling such a belief as a 'fantasy island' notion.

As of late April 2025, Donald Trump's approval ratings have sharply declined, marking 'very bad news' for his administration.

Recent polling indicates that Trump's job approval rating is currently at 41%, the lowest for any newly elected president at 100 days in office since at least Dwight Eisenhower.

An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll reveals that 55% of respondents disapprove of Trump's performance, the lowest approval rating for any president in the past 80 years.

Public sentiment regarding the economy has worsened, with only 21% believing it has improved since Trump took office, while 53% feel it has deteriorated, contributing to his declining approval.

Voter confidence in Trump's economic management has significantly decreased, which is a critical issue for many constituents.

CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, highlighted a dramatic drop in Trump's net favorability rating with independents, plummeting from -9 percentage points in October 2024 to -30 in April 2025.

Polling data shows that independents now favor Democrats over Republicans by 17 percentage points on a generic ballot, a significant shift from a mere 3-point advantage for Democrats in October.

Enten noted that the House GOP's victory in the 2024 popular vote by nearly 3 percentage points is now overshadowed by a 7-point shift towards Democrats, largely due to Trump's unpopularity.

Recent polls from CNBC, The New York Times, and Fox News indicate that Democrats currently lead Republicans by an average of 4 percentage points on a generic congressional ballot.

Enten emphasized that the latest polling data reflects a substantial shift in congressional ballot margins, contrasting sharply with previous Republican advantages.