Immigrant Voter Shift: GOP Support Surges to 45%, Democrats Down to 30% Amid Border Crisis

June 13, 2025
Immigrant Voter Shift: GOP Support Surges to 45%, Democrats Down to 30% Amid Border Crisis
  • By the time of the 2024 election, support for the GOP among immigrant voters surged to 45%, while Democratic support dropped to 30%.

  • This significant shift reflects a broader trend among American voters, particularly immigrants, who are moving from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party due to changing perspectives on immigration policies.

  • A CNN analysis highlighted a dramatic 40-point shift among immigrant voters, with their favorability towards Democrats on immigration plummeting from a 32-point lead in 2020 to an 8-point trust in Republicans by 2024.

  • The surge in illegal immigration, with over 10.8 million encounters recorded from 2021 to 2024, has fueled a backlash among immigrant voters, who are increasingly demanding stricter immigration management.

  • Trump's messaging around immigration resonates with economic anxieties, as many immigrant voters express concerns about job competition and the strain on public services caused by illegal immigration.

  • These immigration and border security policies played a crucial role in Trump's successful campaign during the 2024 elections, enabling Republicans to regain control of the presidency and the Senate.

  • Recent data indicates a notable increase in immigrant voters backing Trump's strict immigration policies, marking a stark change from previous election cycles.

  • Moreover, immigrant voters' favorability towards undocumented immigrants has significantly declined, shifting from a positive 23-point margin in 2020 to a negative 6 points in 2024.

  • Experts suggest that many immigrant voters feel frustrated with the current immigration policies and perceive the Biden administration's approach as too lenient.

  • Daron Shaw noted that prior to Trump's political rise, immigration and border security were seen as separate issues, but they have since merged, benefiting the Republican Party.

  • Additionally, Republicans have made gains among traditionally Democratic-supporting demographics, including Black, Hispanic, and younger voters.

  • Trump's overall approval rating on immigration has improved significantly, rising from -21 in June 2017 to +1 in 2024, marking his most substantial gain on any issue.

Summary based on 2 sources


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