The ECB conducts thematic health checks on euro zone banks every other year when no European Banking Authority stress test is underway, with the 2026 test set to expand on this year's efforts.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on July 15, 2025, that it will launch a banking stress test campaign in 2026 focused specifically on geopolitical risks, building on this year's assessments.

This upcoming thematic stress test will evaluate the resilience of banks against severe geopolitical scenarios, as confirmed by ECB chief supervisor Claudia Buch.

Unlike traditional tests, banks will be required to develop scenarios that could lead to significant capital depletion, rather than just estimating losses based on predefined situations.

The global economy has recently been affected by multiple geopolitical crises, including conflicts in Ukraine and tensions with China, which underscore the importance of this new testing approach.

The stress test aims to assess how well banks are prepared for politically motivated disruptions and potential global financial impacts from events like U.S. monetary policy shifts.

While geopolitical risks are not new, their increasing influence on traditional risk areas has prompted bank leaders and boards to pay closer attention.

This new exercise will build on the recent stress test conducted with the European Banking Authority, which evaluated major European banks under worsening geopolitical tensions.

Banks will be asked to evaluate specific geopolitical scenarios that could severely threaten their solvency, although detailed scenarios have not yet been disclosed.

The ECB’s regular stress tests, including the upcoming one, aim to ensure banks have sufficient capital to withstand various shocks, including cyberattacks and climate-related events.

The results from this year's stress test, involving nearly 110 banks representing about 75% of EU banking assets, are expected to be released in early August.

The ECB has identified major geopolitical risks such as conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the U.S.-China trade tensions, as significant threats to euro zone banks.

ECB banking supervisor Claudia Buch emphasized the importance of strengthening banks’ ability to withstand immediate economic threats and severe geopolitical shocks.