Canada Shifts Trade Focus: Eyes $50 Billion Deal with India, Warms Relations with China

November 30, 2025
Canada Shifts Trade Focus: Eyes $50 Billion Deal with India, Warms Relations with China
  • Public response in Canada is mixed: Sikh groups express concerns that the pivot could compromise governance and security, while Ottawa emphasizes responsible multilateral engagement and respect for the rule of law.

  • Canada’s foreign economic strategy centers on building infrastructure and expanding diplomatic and economic presence abroad to offset US-anchored dependence, though challenges persist from China’s retaliatory tariffs and the dominance of North American markets.

  • Foreign Minister Anita Anand describes the new approach as a response to the global economic environment, reflecting a deliberate move away from a US-centric strategy.

  • Key actions include pursuing new markets, expanding export diversification resources, continuing tariff-relief talks with the US, and enhancing Europe and Indo-Pacific engagement.

  • Historical tensions with India, including expulsions tied to the Meng Wanzhou case, illustrate long-standing challenges in Canada’s multi-vector diplomacy.

  • Canada is pursuing a realignment of its trade policy by diversifying partners beyond the United States, restarting talks with India with a target of $50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030 and engaging China to resolve irritants.

  • This shift marks a broader pivot away from US-centric dependence, as Ottawa seeks to reshape international ties, warming relations with China and India after years of tension.

  • The article frames Canada as entering an era of realpolitik driven by tariff threats and strained US relations under a flirtation with disruption, prompting policy diversification.

  • Carney is balancing tariff reductions ahead of potential USMCA renegotiation with preparations for alternative partnerships, signaling a strategic pivot rather than capitulation to US pressure.

  • Canada’s heavy dependence on the US market—over 75% of exports go south and trade roughly makes up two-thirds of GDP—keeps US policy a central determinant of Canadian prosperity.

  • A historic thaw with China occurred when Prime Minister met President Xi at the APEC summit, signaling a potential realignment after years of strain since 2018 over detentions and espionage accusations.

  • Trump’s tariff threats have disrupted Canada’s trade patterns, accelerating Ottawa’s push for a broader external orientation and a goal to double non-US exports by 2035.

Summary based on 2 sources


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Canada Is Entering an Era of Realpolitik

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