AI Cost Plunge: Sam Altman Predicts 10x Annual Drop, DeepSeek Shakes Market with Low-Cost Model
February 10, 2025
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, recently highlighted the direct correlation between the intelligence of AI models and the resources invested in their development, predicting ongoing and predictable improvements with increased funding.
He explained that the intelligence of an AI model is proportional to the logarithm of the resources used in its training and operation, which includes aspects like training compute, data, and inference compute.
Altman noted a significant drop in the costs associated with AI models, citing a remarkable 150-fold reduction in token costs for GPT-4 from early 2023 to mid-2024, which he likened to Moore's Law.
He further predicted that the cost of using AI systems would decrease by approximately ten times every year, enhancing accessibility and utilization of these technologies.
In the evolving AI landscape, new startups like DeepSeek are emerging, offering competitive pricing that undercuts established players like OpenAI, with rates as low as $0.14 per million input tokens.
The rise of DeepSeek, which has launched a low-cost AI model, has caused a stir in the market, impacting stock prices of major US companies reliant on higher-cost AI technologies.
DeepSeek's introduction of its model has coincided with a broader trend of decreasing costs for large language models, as seen with the pricing adjustments for GPT-4o.
Despite the advancements, Altman cautioned about the potential misuse of AI, particularly concerning mass surveillance by authoritarian regimes, and the need for responsible management of AGI.
He emphasized that the implications of these trends could be profound, potentially disrupting the balance of power between capital and labor.
The integration of affordable AI technology by Chinese companies, as demonstrated by DeepSeek, reflects a growing trend that could influence global market dynamics.
Major tech companies, including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta, are ramping up their investments in AI, with total capital expenditures expected to exceed $320 billion in 2025.
OpenAI has experienced remarkable growth, with ChatGPT achieving significant user milestones, including 300 million weekly active users as of December 2024.
Summary based on 6 sources
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Sources

Business Insider • Feb 10, 2025
Sam Altman says the cost of using AI will drop by 10 times every year
The Indian Express • Feb 10, 2025
AI will get more expensive to build, cheaper to use: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman
Cointelegraph • Feb 10, 2025
OpenAI CEO: Costs to run each level of AI falls 10x every year
Windows Central • Feb 11, 2025
Sam Altman says AI prices will drop 10x yearly after OpenAI launched a $200/month ChatGPT sub that thinks "extra hard"