Tesla Shifts Focus to AI and Robotics Amid Revenue Dip; Plans $20B Capex Boost in 2026
January 30, 2026
The report includes contributions from the Associated Press and Patch for Fremont area context.
Tesla continues pursuing Robo-taxis and seeks regulatory approval for autonomous vehicles in multiple U.S. cities, despite limited current deployments.
Bullish analysts cite AI catalysts (FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus) and stronger margins in non-auto segments, with price targets up to the mid-to-high-$500s.
Google adds Gemini to Chrome, enabling site-specific queries and upcoming personal intelligence features linked to Gmail and Photos.
Tesla pivots away from Model S and Model X to double down on artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and robotics, repurposing Fremont lines for Optimus humanoid robots and Cybercab autonomous vehicles.
Q4 2025 revenue declined 3% year over year to $24.9 billion, with full-year 2025 revenue also down 3% to $94.8 billion.
Capital spending is set to jump to over $20 billion in 2026, a 135% year-over-year increase and the largest annual capex in company history, financed with cash and borrowing.
Current limitations include real-world self-driving still needing human oversight during tests, and market demand for EVs and autonomous features has not met earlier expectations.
Energy generation and storage remain a growth pillar, expanding battery storage to address rising electricity demand and grid instability, helping diversify beyond automotive pressure.
Investors will watch Optimus pilot deployments, FSD safety metrics, software take rates, and the durability of automotive revenue during the transition, with timing guided by 50-day and Bollinger band signals.
Long‑term outcomes hinge on progress in AI and robotics and macro conditions, with analyst targets varying.
After-hours reaction saw about a 2% stock uptick, though concerns linger about Musk’s focus across ventures and potential SpaceX IPO considerations.
Summary based on 34 sources
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Sources

USA TODAY • Jan 29, 2026
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The Atlantic • Jan 30, 2026
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Yahoo Finance • Jan 29, 2026
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