OpenAI’s potential collapse is seen as potentially catastrophic for the broader AI industry, with one critic likening it to the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis and emphasizing OpenAI’s central role in current AI investment dynamics.

If OpenAI were to collapse, investors could view AI labs as financial black holes, potentially reducing funding for startups that mainly repackage existing models and struggle to turn a profit, which could threaten overall industry momentum.

A major concern is that OpenAI’s free user model may become a liability, with projections suggesting ad revenue could reach tens of billions by the end of the decade, while other forecasts for AI chatbot ads are far more conservative.

Oracle, NVIDIA, and Microsoft are the most exposed to OpenAI risk, with Oracle bearing the largest stake due to a sizable future cloud revenue contract, while NVIDIA and Microsoft face indirect exposure as investors and suppliers but benefit from diversified client bases.

Zitron argues OpenAI’s profitability is in question, noting heavy infrastructure spending is not matched by subscriptions or ad revenue, implying the need for tens of billions annually to sustain operations.