Reddit is exploring a renewal, potential renegotiation, or even blockage of Google’s access to its data as talks on a roughly $60 million-per-year 2024 licensing deal unfold, amid concerns that AI-generated summaries may siphon clicks away from publisher sites.

The discussion mirrors broader industry trends: several publishers and tech players face declines in Google search traffic and the value of AI-enabled content delivery is under scrutiny.

Google maintains that its AI products still drive users to publishers and offer controls for managing usage, while Reddit and other publishers reassess how AI features affect traffic and value.

Stock reaction to licensing policy uncertainty remains muted as investors await Reddit’s Q2 results to see if licensing revenue can grow alongside the ad business.

Analyst coverage shows a median price target around $227.50 with a wide range; one Buy rating has been noted recently, reflecting mixed views on Reddit’s licensing potential.

Forecasts vary: some analysts see potential 2029 revenue near $5.6 billion with $1.9 billion in earnings, while optimistic scenarios approach $6.3 billion and $2.4 billion, contingent on licensing terms and traffic.

Almost all licensing value comes from two partners, signaling that renewals could bring pricing and service changes.

Insider activity shows heavy selling by several top executives over six months with a few purchases, indicating mixed insider sentiment.

Risks cited include liquidity effects from extended-hours trading, reliance on two key licensing partners, and the challenge of keeping AI licensing distinct from search distribution.

Licensing remains a minor revenue stream but is increasingly material, with roughly $120.6 million in remaining performance obligations and $91.6 million expected to be recognized in 2026.

Reddit’s licensing revenue is growing in importance, making any changes to licensing terms potentially meaningful for the company’s finances.

Near-term technicals suggest support around $170, with bearish risk if it breaks and a path to recovery above resistance in the mid-$170s to high-$180s.