Australia's AAA Credit Rating at Risk Amidst Election Spending Promises, Warns S&P Global

April 28, 2025
Australia's AAA Credit Rating at Risk Amidst Election Spending Promises, Warns S&P Global
  • The funding of campaign pledges and rising expenditures will be crucial for the incoming government's ability to maintain the AAA rating.

  • In the recent budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers projected a deficit of $27.6 billion for the current fiscal year, which is expected to increase to $42.1 billion by 2025-26, with deficits likely to persist through the 2030s.

  • Concerns have been raised that a lack of fiscal restraint could lead to higher borrowing costs and increased vulnerability to external shocks, ultimately affecting public services and living standards.

  • S&P Global has warned that these election spending promises could jeopardize Australia's AAA credit rating due to the potential for larger budget deficits.

  • Experts caution that while current fiscal policies are stimulatory and support economic growth, there is an increasing risk of complacency regarding the budget position.

  • S&P also noted that rising global economic risks and off-budget commitments from both political parties could further jeopardize the budget's stability.

  • Despite rising government spending, market reactions have remained relatively calm, with Australia's debt and deficits still low by global standards.

  • Australia is one of the few countries globally to hold a AAA credit rating from all three major credit rating agencies: S&P, Fitch Ratings, and Moody's Investors Service.

  • In the lead-up to the election, major political parties in Australia have announced significant spending commitments, including billions for first-time home buyers, tax cuts, and increased health expenditure.

  • The agency highlighted that over A$100 billion in 'off-budget' spending is anticipated between fiscal years 2025 and 2029, raising concerns about fiscal transparency and stability.

  • There is a growing call for a more vigorous debate on measures needed to structurally improve government revenue in Australia.

  • Historically, sound fiscal management has supported Australia's AAA rating, with net government debt averaging just 2% of GDP since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Summary based on 3 sources


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