Autism-related participation has surged to about 324,200 participants by December 2025, up from 261,600 a year earlier, driving higher program costs and expansion.

Labor proposes a new Thriving Kids program for autistic children with mild to moderate needs, funded at $4 billion over five years, rolling out in stages to be fully operational by 2028, with NDIS eligibility adjusted accordingly.

Ananda-Rajah suggests borrowing Medicare-like elements—accountability, pricing, and checks—to strengthen integrity and value while addressing concerns about medicalizing neurodiversity within the NDIS.

Ahead of the May budget, the NDIS faces a critical juncture as disability providers and two doctor MPs push for structural reforms to curb growth, boost integrity, and reallocate funds to high-need groups.

Freelander supports redesign to protect those with severe disabilities while arguing for slower growth to preserve the scheme’s social license and affordability.

NDIS is growing more than 10% annually and now serves about 760,000 people, with roughly 310,000 individuals with autism or developmental delays having mild to moderate needs, representing about 40% of participants.

The government is weighing broader structural changes to funding, eligibility, and provider registration to improve integrity, affordability, and value, freeing fiscal space for productivity investments.

The opposition warns against arbitrary cuts and stresses maintaining support for NDIS-reliant individuals, even as it acknowledges political pressure to deliver budget savings.

Two Labor MPs who are physicians are calling for a redesign of the NDIS to reduce rising costs and restore effectiveness.