The refinery has already recovered much of its capacity, running at roughly 60% petrol and 80% for diesel and jet fuel, with expectations to reach 90% or more in the near term.

Reduced refining capacity briefly boosted Ampol’s stock as the company benefited from a temporary domestic oil production moat.

Viva Energy says the Geelong refinery has sufficient fuel stocks to cover the downtime and aims to raise diesel, jet fuel, and petrol production back to over 90% of capacity in the coming weeks, subject to plant inspections.

A fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery damaged the alkylation unit, triggering a ramp-down and reduced output across the facility.

The disruption raises questions about fuel security policy and possible government support for Viva Energy and Ampol amid concerns of single-point-of-failure in the domestic refining system.

Investors are advised that refining is not the main profit driver for Viva Energy; investors should monitor restart timelines, insurance coverage, and potential tighter fuel-security regulations, with a six-week restart range seen as acceptable and longer delays warranting risk reduction.

Energy Minister Chris Bowen noted current operation levels around 80% for diesel and jet fuel and 60% for standard petrol, with a quick return to normal levels anticipated for diesel and jet fuel.

Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery resumed trading on the ASX after a four-day halt prompted by the April fire, with shares around the A$2.53 mark.

Analysts consider two recovery timelines: a restart within about three weeks would be mildly negative but earnings would remain on track, while a three-month-plus delay would squeeze margins due to imported petrol typically earning thinner margins.

The halt ended as trading resumed, with the stock having risen earlier in the year, and the halt was triggered by the April incident.

Before the incident, the Geelong refinery accounted for up to half of Victoria’s fuel and about 10% of Australia’s total, elevating concerns about national energy security amid a global supply crunch.

Viva plans to cover shortfalls with imports; authorities have secured extra fuel from Brunei and Korea, with BP assisting via Export Finance Australia, though these measures do not guarantee profitability.