Australia’s government is moving to tighten eligibility for the National Disability Insurance Scheme, with plans to reduce participant numbers by about 160,000 over two years and potentially more reductions by 2028, while reassuring families not to panic.

State governments push back on cost-shifting even as a $5 billion package funds new supports, and Queensland has declined to sign onto the Thriving Kids program, which would replace some NDIS supports for certain young children with autism or developmental delays.

The broader policy shift centers on a more targeted NDIS with stricter entry criteria and less funding flexibility for participants, amid ongoing state-federal funding negotiations.

The government has not released the underlying modelling, but Albanese emphasizes that no one will be removed without alternative supports and ongoing dialogue with the disability sector.

Health Minister Mark Butler has stated that current NDIS recipients will not be cut off until alternative services are secured by state governments.

The reforms include cuts to social and community inclusion supports and new financial controls, projected to save roughly $35 billion over four years and as much as $150 billion over a decade.

The plan would use a new functional assessment tool to determine eligibility and aims to trim participants from about 760,000 to roughly 600,000 in four years, with a long-term scenario of up to 900,000 by 2030 if unchanged.