Australia is making progress against smoking, with daily smoking rates dropping to 5.6% among people aged 14+ in 2025 (down from 8.3% in 2022–23) and adults 18+ at 5.8%, moving toward the 2030 target of 5% or less.

However, illicit tobacco use among current smokers surged, with about 34% reporting recent purchase or use in 2025, up from 16.7% in 2022–23, signaling enforcement and supply-chain challenges.

Public health voices, including the Public Health Association of Australia, say cessation efforts are working and emphasize continued investment in education, enforcement, and support services to sustain progress.

NSW officials acknowledge progress but warn illicit trade could undo gains; experts call for tighter retailer licensing, noting that 60% of stores found to be selling illicit tobacco were licensed.

Cancer Council Australia credits decades of tobacco-control measures—plain packaging, taxation, advertising bans, and public education—for the decline and urges stronger enforcement against illicit products.

The organization stresses that strong public health measures, not tax cuts, are driving down smoking and calls for ongoing enforcement to disrupt illicit markets.

Australia’s comprehensive tobacco-control strategy—tax increases, plain packaging, advertising bans, smoke-free laws, warnings, campaigns, and quit-support—continues to reduce smoking prevalence.

NSW Health figures (Nov 2025–Jun 2025) show 347 short-term closure orders and seizures of 20.5 million illicit cigarettes and 214,000 illegal vaping products, valued at about Aus$30 million, with linked violence and tax losses.

Experts caution that higher legal prices alone won’t curb illicit use and advocate tighter licensing, fewer retailers, and stronger enforcement.

The National Drug Strategy Household Survey, conducted every three years, surveyed over 17,500 Australians aged 14+ from mid to late 2025, amid ongoing debates about illicit trade and policy.

Some smokers who switch to illicit products may smoke more due to cheap, readily available stock, and there are indications of increased multi-product nicotine use.

A separate sewage analysis suggests illicit nicotine accounts for about 80% of national nicotine consumption, up from 12% in 2017, with total nicotine use up 40% since 2017 and rising since 2021.