The European Commission has projected that Belgium's public deficit will increase to 5.4% of GDP in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, up from 4.5% in 2024.

The global trade outlook is also concerning, with growth predictions for EU exports revised down significantly, impacting Belgium's economic prospects.

Despite these challenges, the EU is projected to create 2 million new jobs by the end of 2026, with a historically low unemployment rate of 5.7% forecasted for that year.

However, the Commission has reduced growth expectations due to weakening global trade prospects and uncertainties in trade policy.

On a more positive note, Belgium's inflation rate is projected to decrease to 2.8% in 2025 and further to 1.8% in 2026, indicating ongoing disinflation trends.

In terms of economic growth, Belgium is forecasted to experience a modest GDP growth of only 0.8% in 2025, compared to 1% in 2024, which is below the expected growth rates for the eurozone and the EU.

Growth is expected to remain sluggish in Belgium, with projections of 0.9% for 2026, while the eurozone and EU are anticipated to see acceleration in their growth during the same period.

This rising deficit is attributed to higher spending on costs related to an aging population, defense, and interest payments.

Belgium's gross public debt is expected to reach 107.1% of GDP in 2025 and 109.8% in 2026, significantly exceeding the EU's requirement for Eurozone countries to maintain a budget deficit below 3%.

The increased deficit is further exacerbated by higher interest rates on loan repayments and increased contributions to the EU budget.

The European Commission remains optimistic that the new Federal Government's policies on the labor market, pensions, and taxes will positively influence the budget deficit.

Unemployment in Belgium is expected to rise to 6.1% in 2025 from 5.7% in 2024, before improving slightly to 5.8% in 2026 as economic activity slows.