Market sentiment around Bitcoin remains cautious, with betting platforms indicating only a 71% chance of reaching $125,000 in 2025 and just a 5% likelihood of hitting $200,000, reflecting subdued optimism.

The probability of Bitcoin reaching $140,000 this year is estimated at 54%, which is only slightly better than a coin toss, representing a 27% increase from its current value of around $111,900.

Analysts estimate a 54% chance that Bitcoin will hit $140,000 by the end of 2025, marking a modest 27% rise from its current level, with some market watchers viewing this as a cautious outlook.

This subdued outlook is driven by factors such as slowing inflows, large miner sell-offs, and seasonal patterns, which typically make the third quarter the worst for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has declined approximately 10% from its recent all-time high above $124,000, further fueling cautious sentiment among analysts.

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin's buyer-to-seller ratio has fallen to its lowest point since 2018, indicating aggressive selling and the potential for increased price volatility.

This mismatch between Bitcoin's bullish cycle and current market sentiment could lead to sharp price swings in the near term, according to CryptoQuant.

Economist Timothy Peterson predicts Bitcoin could reach $160,000 by Christmas, citing historical trends where Bitcoin appreciated from late August to late December in 70% of years, with an average increase of 44%.

Currently trading around $111,900, Bitcoin's historical patterns suggest it could reach $160,000, but such forecasts are not guaranteed and exclude atypical years.

While some industry figures and institutions set ambitious targets, analysts at 10x Research consider the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 this year to be 'extremely unlikely,' citing slowing institutional inflows and large miner sell-offs.

Experts at 10x Research also emphasize that the chances of Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by the end of 2025 are very slim, especially given the weakness observed in the third quarter.