While macro factors like AI boom and geopolitical tensions add complexity, Thorn emphasizes that the primary near-term influence remains US–China tariffs, with Bitcoin's bull run being more about endurance and evolution than euphoria.

Bitcoin's 2025 market trajectory is characterized by a slow, volatile ascent, with declining realized volatility and a macro-driven environment that signals maturation rather than decline, as recent gradual price increases and all-time highs suggest.

According to Galaxy's head of research, Alex Thorn, the current market is not in a failed cycle but is evolving, with a changing character that reflects a more mature phase of growth.

Institutional channels such as wealth management platforms and custody banks are facilitating broader Bitcoin adoption, marking the transition from early adopters to widespread ownership.

Market resistance levels around $100,000 could serve as a transition point, with Bitcoin potentially looking very different once it surpasses this threshold.

Thorn notes that gold's offshore strength reflects diversification efforts by foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds, a trend he expects Bitcoin to follow as institutional participation increases.

The divergence between gold and Bitcoin is driven by gold's offshore strength due to diversification away from US exposure, while Bitcoin's price remains tied to risk appetite.

Near-term market influences include US–China tariff tensions, with a resolution likely to restore risk appetite and support Bitcoin's growth, while upcoming Federal Reserve meetings are less impactful.

Thorn predicts Bitcoin will increasingly serve as a risk-off, scarcity hedge asset as ownership shifts into institutional hands, with major firms like BlackRock and Fidelity emphasizing this narrative.

As of today, Bitcoin is trading around $111,183, reflecting this gradual, macro-driven growth.

The ongoing distribution of Bitcoin from long-term holders to new investors is seen as a healthy sign of market maturation, potentially marking a shift at the $100,000 level.

Galaxy Research has revised its year-end Bitcoin price target from $150,000–$185,000 down to approximately $130,000, citing macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties.

Bitcoin is not yet trading like gold because market flows still treat it as a risk asset, but this is expected to shift as institutional ownership increases and more assets flow into passive investment vehicles.