The overall view points to a coordinated signal set—valuation signals, on-chain growth, and ETF activity—that could sketch a recovery path for Bitcoin into 2026, though a robust move back to six figures will require higher trading volume and sustained demand.

Spot trading momentum has improved as Glassnode data show the spot cumulative volume delta turning positive after prior selling pressure, signaling improved sentiment and more stable price action.

Timothy Peterson’s Metcalfe-based valuation model suggests the network is expanding and undervalued, a combination historically linked to positive one-year returns after dips below Metcalfe Value.

Grayscale argues the current drop may reflect a local bottom rather than a deep, protracted downturn and notes a rise in option skew, suggesting hedging near the floors; they also challenge the traditional four-year cycle tied to halvings.

ETF and options data show November outflows near $3.48 billion, followed by four consecutive days of spot ETF inflows (including $8.5 million on Monday), signaling renewed demand and potential price support.

On-chain activity is rising, with wallet activity and transaction counts up; Nansen reports a 15% weekly increase in BTC transactions and record-high commitments from holders locking in six months or longer, pointing to stronger real usage and potential rebound.

Bitcoin sits roughly 30% below its October all-time high of around $126,000 and remains under the Metcalfe Value for the first time in two years, indicating reduced leverage and diminished speculative noise.