The classic four-year Bitcoin boom-and-bust cycle has largely ended, especially after the 2024 halving, which significantly reduced annual supply growth and altered its monetary dynamics.

Since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin's supply growth has slowed to about 0.8%, making it arguably the hardest asset and reducing miners' influence on large-scale price declines.

Favorable macro liquidity conditions, such as upcoming rate cuts, have historically supported Bitcoin bull markets, and current forecasts suggest these conditions remain positive.

Institutional demand continues to be a strong bullish driver, with over 500% of Bitcoin's daily supply being bought by public companies and ETFs, often leading to significant price increases.

To monitor potential supply-demand shifts, Edwards proposes an early warning system for large holders, analyzing ratios and metrics to anticipate possible selling pressure.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is approximately $119,121, reflecting its current valuation amid evolving market dynamics.

Bitcoin's market cycles are now primarily driven by investor sentiment, macro liquidity, and euphoria, rather than the halving events that once dictated market turns.

Despite long-term risks, Edwards believes the miner-driven cycle is dead, and if institutional demand persists, we could see a new period of substantial price expansion, provided liquidity and institutional buying remain strong.

A major long-term concern is quantum computing, which could break Bitcoin's cryptography within 3-6 years, prompting the community to prepare for quantum-resistant upgrades.

While on-chain metrics like MVRV and NVT suggest the market isn't overheated, derivatives indicators such as the 'Heater' signal short-term caution and potential overheating.