Since 2024, Bitcoin's daily price movements are largely driven by inflows and outflows from spot ETFs, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust holding over 800,000 BTC playing a significant role in market dynamics.

The tradable Bitcoin supply on centralized exchanges has fallen to about 2.83 million BTC, a six-year low, making market moves more sensitive to small buy or sell orders.

While large whales can influence prices with big orders, their ability to dictate daily market direction is limited; overall, ETF flows, liquidity, and macroeconomic factors like the dollar index and US yields have a greater impact.

In volatile, thinly traded periods, large orders can cause outsized swings, but generally, daily trends are more affected by ETF activity, trading volume, and macro trends than individual whale trades.

The number of entities holding at least 1,000 BTC has increased to over 1,670, the highest since early 2021, indicating growing concentration among large holders.

Market direction on most days is also influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the US dollar index, 10-year yield, and broader risk appetite, which tend to follow Bitcoin's daily moves.

Institutional custody has increased, with US spot ETFs now holding approximately 1.66 million BTC, about 6.4% of the total supply, while the tradable supply on exchanges has decreased to a six-year low.

Monitoring ETF flows, exchange liquidity, funding rates, open interest, and macro indicators offers a comprehensive approach to understanding Bitcoin's daily market trends.

Most large Bitcoin holders avoid executing big trades on public exchanges by splitting orders or using OTC desks, which reduces their ability to impact prices intraday.

This off-exchange trading behavior by whales diminishes their capacity to cause significant market shocks through large, visible trades.