Monetary policy signals, especially Fed rate expectations and potential cuts or dovish stances, are central to near-term Bitcoin moves.

Forecasts for 2025 were revised downward; notable projections ranged from $150,000 to $200,000, but actual moves underscored a growing gap between optimism and market dynamics.

The broader market has been turbulent, with tariffs, rate concerns, and AI stock valuations driving swings in stock benchmarks.

Prominent analysts and investors, including Strategy and Standard Chartered, had envisioned much higher targets for Bitcoin in 2025, highlighting expectations versus reality.

Tariff announcements and AI stock sell-offs in spring and fall 2025 triggered large liquidations and accelerated declines in crypto markets.

Bitcoin wrapped 2025 in a volatile mix of record highs and sharp selloffs, risking its first annual decline since 2022 as December approached.

Near-term crypto direction hinges on anticipated Fed moves, with a possible 25 basis-point rate cut and sentiment around AI stocks as key drivers.

After an all-time peak above $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin hovered near $89,000 in early December, signaling a strong drawdown from the highs.

Crypto is reacting to broader risk markets, and volatility in AI stocks is amplifying Bitcoin’s moves against traditional assets.

Bitcoin’s correlation with equities, particularly AI-focused tech stocks, strengthened in 2025, with average correlations to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 rising from 2024 levels.

Traders priced roughly a 15% chance that Bitcoin would close below $80,000, reflecting ongoing upside uncertainty late in the year.

October volatility was sparked by Trump’s tariff on Chinese imports and export-controls talk, triggering over $19 billion in crypto liquidations—the largest in history.

November marked Bitcoin’s largest monthly drop since mid-2021, though bearish sentiment eased somewhat in theOptions market recently.