MSCI will not exclude Strategy from its indices in the near term, offering a positive signal, though longer-term uncertainty remains.

Because purchases are funded mainly through equity, the immediate bitcoin yield is limited, but a recovery is anticipated if bitcoin prices rise and macro/regulatory conditions improve.

Strategy has been aggressively increasing bitcoin purchases during a price pullback, issuing about 6.8 million common shares and 1.2 million SPR STRC preferred shares in the week ending Jan. 11, raising approximately $1.25 billion to acquire 13,627 more bitcoins.

The price targets assume a 5x multiple, implying gains driven by higher BTC prices, and expect BTC yield to recover to about 8.1% in FY27 with gains exceeding $13.5 billion.

Strategy plans to acquire about 155,000 bitcoins in fiscal year 2026, funded largely by equity rather than cash, which constrains the BTC yield.

Analysts project bitcoin prices rising to roughly $177,000 by the end of 2026 and about $226,000 by end-2027, with yield dynamics improving in 2027 as accretion from future purchases adds to returns.

TD Cowen analysts cut Strategy’s one-year price target to $440 from $500 due to a weaker yield outlook caused by higher equity and preferred stock issuance diluting the fully diluted share count.

FY26E bitcoin yield is modeled at 7.1% (down from 8.8%), with an estimated BTC gain of $6.315 billion for FY26E, compared with $9.4 billion previously forecast.