Leshka argues that Bitcoin hasn’t bottomed yet, noting historical bear markets saw sharp drawdowns and suggesting BTC could fall toward $50,000 before a macro bottom, with a possible intermediate move to $55,000.

He highlights repeated failures to hold above the $72,000 resistance and forecasts a near-term decline to about $55,000 as the path forward.

Rising supply in loss and lack of sustained demand imply cautious accumulation and potential further downside without a breakout above $72,000.

Leshka points to Bitcoin’s inability to sustain above $72,000 as evidence that a bottom isn’t in, projecting a drop to around $50,000 before a longer-term bottom emerges.

Supply in loss has risen toward the 40–45% range, a pattern historically linked to increased market stress and potential bear-market continuation.

Key resistance remains at $72,000, with a breakout needed to end the current downtrend.

On-chain metrics point to a psychologically challenging phase of the cycle, with elevated uncertainty and mixed sentiment among traders.

Long-Term Holder SOPR has fallen below 1, signaling losses among long-term investors and cautious capitulation dynamics.

Market consensus points to a bear-market extension into late 2026, with some forecasts as low as $30,000.

The article cautions that it is not investment advice and urges readers to conduct their own research.

Other analysts describe current conditions as a relief rally within a broader bear market, with signals like the Bitcoin Bull Score Index at 30 suggesting a temporary uptick.

The relief rally characterization is supported by notes that the upmove is not yet a new uptrend.