Bitcoin’s futures market is showing unusually high leverage as the rally continues, with the Estimated Leverage Ratio rising to 14.9%, a warning flag that a snapback move could be imminent.

Domestic stablecoin inflows on Binance suggest dry powder on the sidelines, while the $78,000–$79,000 zone sits at a critical support where the Short-Term Holder Realized Price intersects, meaning accelerated liquidations could occur if that level breaks.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $290.4 million in outflows on May 15, with nearly a billion dollars leaving ETFs over the past week, indicating institutions trimmed exposure during the rebound.

Approximately 316,000 BTC moved into long-term holder wallets in the last 30 days, indicating a shift from active trading toward longer-term storage.

Long-term holders now control roughly 15.26 million BTC, signaling a supply dynamic leaning toward holders rather than new buying or mining activity.

U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year around 4.6% and the 30-year above 5%, reinforcing a higher-for-longer environment that can dampen risk assets and affect leverage.

Long positions are rising as open interest and funding rates climb after a short squeeze toward $82,000, indicating an overextended setup that could revert.

Overall, a break in ETF inflow stabilization or a recovery in the Coinbase Premium could keep the ELR risk elevated, making the current leverage situation precarious and prone to a sharp move.

The Coinbase Premium Index remained deeply negative (around -0.06) while Bitcoin traded near $78,200, signaling weak U.S. institutional spot demand.