BTC rebounded about 33% from July’s $57,800 low yet remains roughly 40% below its all-time high, prompting questions whether a new bull phase has begun or if this is a bear-market relief rally.

Bitcoin spot ETF inflows stayed positive, with daily net inflows around $6 million (about 78.39 BTC) and aggregate inflows nearing $55.63 billion (roughly 695,820 BTC), signaling broader institutional demand beyond Morgan Stanley.

The inflows come as Bitcoin price moves toward $78,000, indicating market momentum tied to institutional buying.

According to BlackRock’s IBIT and Farside data, Bitcoin ETF inflows reached about $183.7 million, underscoring renewed institutional interest.

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September seasonality for BTC has historically been weak, with potential headwinds from regulatory and monetary policy moves, including CLARITY Act momentum and a Fed rate hike, which could tighten liquidity and boost the USD.

The bear cycle has stretched roughly 290 days, with Bitcoin closing above the 200-day SMA in mid-August, marking it as the fourth-longest such bear period since 2014.

The immediate technical hurdle is a sustained breakout above the 365-day moving average near $82,300; a breakout would bolster a new bullish phase, while rejection could keep BTC consolidating or expose downside.

On-chain data shows a mixed picture: a bullish sentiment score near 70, but cooling short-term demand, negative Coinbase Premium, and rising profit-taking, suggesting consolidation rather than a confirmed uptrend.

Wall Street observers are watching the development as a notable market event.

BTC traded around $77,257 after retreating from the $82,000 resistance, staying above $76,500 support, with RSI around 55 and RSI average around 63.7, implying restrained but still positive buying pressure and a defended order block.

Holding the $76,500 support is key; a rebound toward $82,000 could unfold if institutional demand remains strong, while breaking below may trigger a deeper correction. Combined with ongoing spot outflows and institutional accumulation, supply tightening could support a move back toward the $82,000 resistance.