A new study from researchers in the Netherlands reveals that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could lead to significant cooling in Northern Europe, even in the context of global warming.

The research, published in Geophysical Research Letters, examines a scenario where the AMOC weakens by 80% while global temperatures rise approximately two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, predicting profound cooling for Europe.

The AMOC is crucial for moderating the European climate, and a weakened AMOC could result in colder conditions across the continent despite rising global temperatures.

This expected cooling would lead to intense winter extremes in northwest Europe, while summer temperatures would remain slightly cooler but still above pre-industrial levels, resulting in dramatic seasonal temperature swings.

Researchers created an interactive map to illustrate the potential global impacts of AMOC collapse, showcasing expected temperature changes across various regions.

Professor Stefan Rahmstorf emphasized that the study confirms long-standing concerns regarding the drastic impacts of AMOC collapse, particularly on temperature extremes in Europe.

Professor Tim Lenton described the potential climate scenario as featuring extreme winters resembling an ice age, followed by summers with heightened heatwaves, dramatically altering Europe's seasonal climate pattern.

The study also found that sea ice would expand into Scandinavia, the Netherlands, and parts of the United States, with cooling intensified by reflective snow and ice surfaces.

Scandinavia could experience extreme cold, with some areas facing winter temperatures as low as -50°C.

Under a scenario of a 2°C increase in global temperatures, Edinburgh could see winter temperatures plummet to as low as -30°C.

London may face winter temperatures dropping to -19°C, with predictions indicating that one in ten winters could see temperatures plunge to near -4°F.

Co-author Renée van Westen noted that this study is the first to utilize a modern climate model to investigate the balance between cooling and warming effects resulting from AMOC collapse.