Climate change is expected to significantly alter flood patterns across Europe, with regional differences depending on local climate and hydrological conditions.

A recent study uses high-resolution simulations to project how large, connected floods in Europe will change under warming scenarios of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C, revealing complex regional responses.

Overall, flood responses to warming are highly heterogeneous across regions, emphasizing the need for targeted risk management strategies.

In snowmelt-dependent regions like Scandinavia and parts of Northern and Continental Europe, flood seasonality is shifting earlier due to earlier snowmelt, with some areas experiencing a transition from snowmelt-driven to rainfall-driven floods.

Rainfall-driven flood regions, particularly in the Atlantic area including Ireland, the UK, western France, and Germany, are projected to see up to a 50% increase in flood frequency under 3°C warming.

Snow-dependent regions such as the Alps are expected to see a decline in flood frequency by around 17-19% under 3°C warming, mainly due to reduced snowpack and earlier snowmelt.

Flood volumes are primarily driven by precipitation and snowmelt, with increased rainfall contributions leading to up to 30% higher flood volumes in severe events, offsetting reductions in snowmelt in some regions.

While the largest floods in the Northern region may decrease in extent, the Atlantic region is likely to experience more frequent and extensive severe floods driven by increased extreme rainfall.

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C could substantially reduce the projected increases in flood severity and extent, underscoring the importance of stringent climate mitigation.

These findings highlight the regional variability in flood responses, which has important implications for developing effective flood risk management strategies.

In some regions, especially those dependent on snowmelt, earlier snowmelt leads to earlier floods, potentially shifting flood regimes from snowmelt-driven to rainfall-driven as temperatures rise.

At the broader European scale, the average frequency of large floods may remain stable, but significant regional differences exist depending on the dominant flood-generating processes.