This decline is driven primarily by global warming, which reduces freshwater inflow and increases evaporation, leading to the loss of significant seabed areas—potentially over 112,000 square kilometers—and affecting five bordering countries.

The shrinking sea's desertification of the northern region threatens biodiversity and destabilizes ecosystems, causing a ripple effect through the food chain.

The falling water levels are straining regional infrastructure, forcing countries like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to dredge channels and relocate ports, incurring billions of dollars in costs and risking stranded settlements.

Ecologically, the decline has led to habitat loss for endangered species such as the Caspian seal—up to 81% of their breeding habitats could vanish—and critical spawning grounds for sturgeon are disappearing, with toxic dust exposure from exposed seabeds posing health risks.

The crisis exemplifies broader global issues of climate change impacts on inland water bodies, emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated regional action to protect ecosystems, economies, and stability.

Efforts to maintain ports and oil operations involve costly dredging and logistical challenges, with some estimates indicating billions in expenses and the risk of infrastructure being stranded as the sea recedes.

The Caspian Sea, the world's largest inland body of water, is experiencing a rapid decline in water levels due to climate change, threatening regional ecosystems, economies, and geopolitical stability.

Since the early 2000s, water levels have fallen sharply, with some regions receding by up to 30 centimeters annually, reaching critically low levels by 2025, and projections suggest drops of up to 10 meters under current emission scenarios.

The loss of habitats and ecosystems could result in the disappearance of four ecosystem types, further threatening regional biodiversity.

The primary cause of this ecological decline is climate change, which reduces freshwater inflow from rivers and rainfall while increasing evaporation rates.

Human communities dependent on the Caspian Sea face displacement and economic hardship as their livelihoods diminish, heightening regional tensions.

Bordering nations are attempting to address the crisis through intergovernmental agreements, but traditional conservation methods are insufficient for the rapidly changing coastline, necessitating integrated, region-wide planning.