China's Energy Dilemma: Balancing Coal Expansion with Renewable Growth Amid Climate Goals

October 20, 2025
China's Energy Dilemma: Balancing Coal Expansion with Renewable Growth Amid Climate Goals
  • Although China leads globally in renewable installations, it accounted for 93% of new coal construction in 2024, reflecting a 'build before breaking' approach to energy policy.

  • China's energy policy presents a paradox as it simultaneously expands renewable energy capacity while increasing coal projects, aiming to secure supply amid climate commitments.

  • Despite substantial investments in renewables, China's reliance on coal and infrastructure challenges complicate its efforts to mitigate climate change.

  • The end of feed-in tariffs has heightened competition for renewable projects, and future demand may not sustain high capacity growth without government support.

  • Many large-scale renewables are located far from consumers, and ongoing infrastructure improvements for long-distance transmission are insufficient, which favors coal's dispatchability.

  • Economic factors such as rising electricity demand and coal's profitability, combined with grid and transmission challenges, make coal an attractive energy source despite renewable growth.

  • Policy shifts, including the end of feed-in tariffs and the profitability of existing coal plants, continue to drive coal expansion even as renewables advance.

  • Concerns over power supply stability, grid reform issues, and economic considerations have led to coal's continued development, outpacing renewable growth at times.

  • Experts note that China is cautiously balancing renewable expansion with coal capacity to prevent power shortages and maintain economic stability.

  • Chinese officials remain hesitant to phase out coal before renewables are fully operational, influenced by past grid issues and extreme weather events.

  • The renewable energy sector is a major economic driver, contributing 10% to China's GDP and a quarter of its economic growth last year, underscoring its strategic importance.

  • Renewables significantly bolster China's economy, making them a crucial part of the country's development and economic strategy.

  • China's inflexible grid favors coal's dispatchability, prompting continued coal capacity expansion to ensure reliable energy supply.

  • China aims for 3,600 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity by 2035, but current trends suggest that coal may still be needed to meet future demand, despite a fleet utilization rate of around 50%.

  • In 2025's first half, China’s coal power capacity grew significantly, with the country responsible for 93% of global new coal construction in 2024, underscoring its continued reliance on coal.

Summary based on 2 sources


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