Universal Thermal Curve 'Shackles' Evolution, Limits Species' Climate Adaptation Potential
October 21, 2025
A groundbreaking study published in PNAS reveals that all living organisms, from bacteria to reptiles, follow a universal thermal performance curve (UTPC), which describes how their performance varies with temperature.
This curve shows that performance increases with temperature up to an optimal point, beyond which it declines rapidly, risking physiological failure or death from overheating, and this pattern is consistent across species.
Despite the diversity of life, the shape of this performance curve is remarkably conserved, with different species simply shifting or stretching the curve rather than altering its fundamental form.
Evolution has primarily moved this performance curve around for different species, rather than changing its shape, highlighting a fundamental constraint on biological adaptation to warming climates.
The study emphasizes that the optimal temperature and the maximum temperature at which species can survive are intrinsically linked, narrowing the viable temperature range once temperatures exceed the optimum.
This conserved pattern indicates that species are more limited in their ability to adapt to climate change than previously thought, as their performance response to temperature is governed by this universal curve.
Consequently, the ability of species to adapt to global warming is constrained, with their viable temperature range shrinking once temperatures rise above their optimal, making overheating increasingly dangerous.
Future research aims to identify any species or systems that might deviate from this pattern, especially as global temperatures continue to rise, to better understand potential avenues for adaptation.
The next phase of investigation will focus on whether any species can break away from this universal pattern, considering the ongoing impacts of climate warming.
Scientists from Trinity College Dublin have discovered this universal thermal performance curve, which effectively 'shackles' evolution by governing how species respond to temperature changes.
This discovery underscores that despite life's diversity, all species are constrained by this rule, with evolution mainly shifting the curve rather than altering its shape.
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