England could face widespread drought in 2026 if this winter is dry, with rainfall deficits persisting after a dry spring and summer.

Current rainfall up to October sits at about 83% of the long-term average, with only January and September above average, leaving drought conditions in parts of Yorkshire, the Midlands, and the North West to recover.

Three winter rainfall scenarios show: (a) typical winter rainfall could restore normal or recovering status by March 2026; (b) around 80% of typical rainfall could keep most regions in drought or extended dry weather by March 2026; (c) about 60% of average rainfall could trigger national drought by spring 2026, with hosepipe bans and reduced irrigation.

Water minister Emma Hardy said the government will keep coordinating with the National Drought Group and water companies, noting climate-change-driven increases in drought and flood risk and outlining plans to build nine new reservoirs and invest in leakage-reduction schemes.

Hardy emphasized ongoing government action to boost resilience, including nine new reservoirs and leakage-reduction infrastructure, in partnership with the National Drought Group and water companies.

Winter-recharge scenarios outline how outcomes for public use, farming, and wildlife could vary, including reservoir refilling, canal network status, and impacts on amphibian breeding and wildlife.

Environment Agency urges continued water-saving, leakage reduction, and collaboration among water companies, farmers, and neighbors to share resources and adapt crops to drought conditions.

Public water conservation has been encouraged for winter, with praise for prior efforts but a reminder to sustain efficiency regardless of rainfall.

Agency director Helen Wakeham warns drought severity depends on winter weather and actions taken, stressing public cooperation as vital to protecting wildlife, rivers, and water supplies.

Drought status remains uncertain; full recovery would be more feasible if rainfall returns to 100% of average or higher, and drought ends only as water levels replenish nationwide.

Hydrological and ecological impacts hinge on winter rainfall and actions taken, with potential effects on wildlife breeding and the canal network under drier scenarios.

The worst drought scenarios are possible with 80% of average rainfall, and full recovery is unlikely unless rainfall returns to or above average levels.