Experts emphasize the need for negative emissions and carbon sinks as part of managing an overshoot and returning to below-1.5°C.

The current consensus is that overshoot of the 1.5°C target is likely in coming years, but the goal remains to manage and eventually bring temperatures back down to 1.5°C.

Prominent figures, including scientists and UN leaders, stress that overshoot is likely but not a defeat and call for urgent action to limit warming.

Experts describe overshoot as a period when temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels before potentially returning below that threshold.

Tipping points associated with overshoot could include coral reef collapse, intensified heat waves, Amazon drying, Greenland/Antarctica ice melt, and possible Atlantic meridional overturning circulation disruption.

Avoiding irreversible damage hinges not just on reaching 1.5°C again, but on returning to it, with overshoot scenarios depending on future tech feasibility and policy measures.

Breaching 1.5°C carries risks like coral reef die-off, more extreme heat waves, Amazon drying, and potential tipping points such as ice sheet melt and disruptions to Atlantic circulation.

There is ongoing uncertainty about the timing and severity of overshoot impacts, underscoring the imperative for rapid, cumulative emissions cuts and potential future technologies.

The 1.5°C limit is framed as a preindustrial-to-present-day increase, with about 1.5°C—roughly 2.7°F—serving as the public reference point in policy discussions.

Experts stress that the 1.5°C boundary is a constraint, not a target, and exceeding it raises human suffering and tipping-point risks.

Overshoot discussions are embedded in ongoing international diplomacy, with decision-makers aiming to re-lower temperatures in the future rather than accept permanent high warming.

Climate Action Tracker estimates suggest that even with maximum action, 1.5°C could be breached around 2030, peaking near 1.7°C and not returning below until the 2060s under current trajectories.

Many researchers believe staying strictly at or below 1.5°C is unlikely in the near term, with projections around 2.6°C warming by mid-century absent substantial action.

Even with aggressive reductions, the timeline for returning to below-1.5°C may extend into the 2060s, underscoring the urgency of action today.

The discourse shifts from a rigid no-go stance to a pragmatic risk-reduction approach that accepts overshoot as possible but prioritizes swift return to below-1.5°C and stronger action.

UN officials, scientists, and analysts describe overshoot as a temporary phase where warming exceeds the target before corrective actions can steer the trajectory downward.