Officials view the recurring godless periods as indicators of warming, warning that continued rise in temperatures could erase the crossing entirely in the future.

Despite the absence, Miyasaka remains committed to the tradition, documenting seasons as records for future generations and viewing the trend as evidence of climate-change impacts.

Priest Kiyoshi Miyasaka emphasizes the personal and cultural significance of preserving the tradition and climate data for future generations, hoping to pass the message to people a century from now.

The article highlights the cultural importance of the tradition and its role in documenting environmental change, while acknowledging uncertainty about long-term forecasts.

Lake Suwa’s miwatari, or God’s Crossing, has been recorded as a climate archive since the 15th century, with priests documenting ice temperature and thickness as part of long-running observations.

The God’s Crossing has not appeared since 2018, and 2024–2025 observations mark an eight-year drought, tying the longest gap on record, a trend scientists attribute to warming and thinner long-lasting freezes.

Scientists explain that miwatari forms when the lake fully freezes for several days below minus 10°C, causing the ice lid to expand and crack into ridges that rumble like thunder; warming has reduced occurrences.

Key figures include priest Kiyoshi Miyasaka, who began the 30-day viewing season on January 5, and researchers Takehiko Mikami and Naoko Hasegawa, who contextualize the phenomenon within climate history and its warnings.

The 2026 watch is led by Miyasaka, with geographer Naoko Hasegawa and emeritus professor Takehiko Mikami interpreting the event and its links to climate change.

When a crossing occurs, it is accompanied by a Shinto ice ritual performed by the shrine priest, an occasion that has happened only a few times in recent decades.

A brief full freeze on January 26 gave way to melting, and by February 4 observers declared an open sea, signaling slim chances of a crossing that season.

Even partial freezes can fail to produce a crossing, contributing to a broader trend of longer gaps or absence of miwatari.