Storage space for early runoff is constrained by existing rules and infrastructure, prompting adjustments and special permissions at facilities like New Bullards Bar and Lake Mendocino to capture meltwater when possible.

FIRO pilots at Lake Mendocino—and potential expansion to New Bullards Bar—employ advanced forecasts to balance releases and storage, aiming to prevent dryouts during droughts.

A record heat wave in California is accelerating snowmelt, shrinking the Sierra Nevada snowpack that normally supplies a large share of spring and summer water.

Traditionally, the Sierra snowpack provides about one third of the state's water, but rapid warming is causing earlier runoff and reducing late-year water availability for homes, farms, fish, hydropower, and forests.

Overall readiness is improved versus past droughts, but earlier snowmelt shifts timing and may require policy and operational readjustments for summer water availability.

State agencies report better snowpack forecasting and data integration (soil moisture, snow measurements, university collaboration) than five years ago, lowering major runoff prediction misses, even as near-term shortages loom.

While reservoirs sit above historical averages, the snowpack is dropping to about 38% of average statewide by mid-March, with April snowpack potentially near the worst on record and melt accelerating.

Reservoir operations are navigating a split focus between flood control and water storage, a tension underscored by drought-driven dry spells at Lake Mendocino and the use of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) to optimize releases through forecasting.

A warm spell and a warming storm have accelerated snowmelt in the Sierra, threatening the timing and quantity of spring and summer runoff.

Despite progress, budgets, federal funding cuts, and permitting delays hinder deployment of additional soil moisture sensors and related infrastructure.

Forecasting improvements and FIRO management have reduced runoff forecast miss rates compared with five years ago, though budget and permitting challenges for soil moisture sensors remain.

The snowpack is not record-breaking but is nearing the bottom five for April 1, with warming temperatures likely to further degrade conditions.