The World Meteorological Organization says an El Niño episode is increasingly probable from mid-2026, with surface temperatures rising and a likely return to El Niño conditions as the equatorial Pacific shows a clear warming trend.

Global impacts will be region-specific, including more rainfall and flooding in parts of East Africa, northern Mexico, the southern United States, Peru, and Ecuador; higher fire risk in Indonesia, Australia, and the Amazon; and drought in India, southern Africa, the Philippines, Indonesia, the Amazon, and Australia.

Forecasts suggest a strong El Niño, but early forecasts are less reliable; by May onward, predictions become more stable and reliable.

The article will be updated as new data arrive.

The term “Super-El Niño” is not an official classification used by the WMO, even though media outlets have used it.

India’s meteorological authorities warn of below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026, with the Southwest monsoon expected to be below normal around 92% of its long-period average, plus a model error margin of ±5%.

Experts caution that readings can be biased by warming baselines and seasonal variability, but authorities still urge preparation for potential extreme weather in the coming months.

Indian officials, including Maharashtra’s leadership, are preparing for El Niño impacts by prioritizing water management, conservation, and cross-department coordination.

The WMO notes that it is not proven that climate change increases El Niño frequency or intensity, though these phenomena occur within a broader anthropogenic warming context.

For Europe and Germany, impacts are expected to be milder than in other regions but could include warmer air masses and more energy in the climate system.

Human-caused warming is linked to changes in ENSO characteristics since the 1960s, with evidence suggesting more extreme and Central-Pacific El Niños, though attribution remains complex.

In India, rising temperatures linked to El Niño could push monsoon rainfall below normal, stressing farmers amid higher costs and regional pressures.