A new Science study analyzes ancient Galápagos coral records to assess El Niño intensity changes over millennia and finds stronger modern El Niño events linked to human-caused global warming.

Overall, the authors frame climate change as a driver of more extreme weather via El Niño, while noting uncertainties and the need to cut fossil fuel use to mitigate impacts.

Lead author Julia Cole and co-author Samantha Stevenson emphasize that today’s El Niño is superimposed on warming from human activities, likely increasing temperature extremes and related impacts.

The piece references prognostications and commentary from multiple scientists and situates the issue within ongoing debates about climate policy and the energy transition.

The authors caution that the coral data reflect past trends and do not specify exact mechanisms, but interpret the trend as evidence of warming-related intensification of ENSO.

Independent experts not involved in the study, like Andrew Dessler, say the results align with warming-driven increases in ENSO variability and underscore climate-mitigation implications.

Comparisons with natural-forcing model runs fail to reproduce the observed 36.5% increase, supporting anthropogenic warming as the driver.

Climate models using natural variability over the last millennium do not explain the post-1850 intensification, implying natural factors alone cannot account for it.

While the study does not conduct a formal attribution to emissions, it notes the change is too large to be explained by natural forces alone, aligning with other fossil-fuel attribution work.

The findings were published in Science and are supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation and the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council.

Experts caution that corals provide historical context but do not guarantee future outcomes; fossil-fuel burning is linked to the mechanism driving changes, though future El Niño strength remains uncertain.

A Pacific focus shows a larger increase in Eastern Pacific ENSO than Central Pacific, consistent with model expectations about where warming should intensify ENSO activity.