Global fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2 billion tonnes, as renewable energy and electric vehicles help meet rising demand and the Iran conflict curbs oil use—but researchers warn that one year of decline, partly driven by a geopolitical shock, does not establish a lasting peak.

The forecast comes from the Global Carbon Project’s 21st annual Global Carbon Budget, produced by more than 140 scientists and published as a preprint in Earth System Science Data on Nov. 10, so it has not yet been peer-reviewed.

Although combined fossil-fuel and land-use emissions have continued to grow, their average annual increase slowed to 0.3% over the past decade, from 1.7% in the decade before; researchers also found that 59 countries had lower emissions in 2025 than in 2019 while their economies grew.

Land-use emissions remain a concern, with fires in drained peatlands and worsening forest conditions in equatorial Asia contributing to the rise; reforestation removed an average of 2.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ a year in 2016–2025, but deforestation emissions were nearly twice as large.

The broader picture is stabilization, not a sustained fall: clean technologies are beginning to slow emissions growth, but a lasting decline is still needed to curb warming and limit damage beyond the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold.

As COP31 opens in Antalya, Turkey, scientists warn that the long-term 1.5°C goal set in the Paris Agreement can no longer be achieved; rapid cuts to fossil-fuel emissions can still limit the period of overshoot and help bring temperatures back down.

The report was released as COP31 opened in Antalya on Nov. 9, 2026, and is due to be presented at the summit, where world leaders are meeting to accelerate climate action.

At the talks, countries are negotiating stronger national climate plans, roadmaps to phase out fossil fuels and climate finance, including a debated $300 billion funding target for developing countries.

The summit is being framed as an “implementation COP,” focused on delivering existing commitments rather than striking sweeping new deals, amid frustration that previous summits have not stopped warming or fully implemented agreements.

A central energy proposal is to accelerate electrification, potentially setting a goal of raising its share to 35% by 2035 under the slogan “35 by 35”; India opposes the effort, while China supports it.

Researchers say the path forward requires faster deployment of renewables and batteries, protection of forests and peatlands, cuts to fossil fuels at their source, and stronger climate commitments and financing through the COP process.

Whether the projected emissions decline lasts will depend in part on what happens to oil prices: Corinne Le Quéré says emissions could rebound if prices return to pre-conflict levels unless renewable energy and electric-vehicle adoption accelerate.