MicroStrategy (MSTR) has a 91% chance of being included in the S&P 500 if Bitcoin maintains a price above $95,240 through the end of June 2025.

Recent changes in accounting standards now allow MicroStrategy to recognize unrealized Bitcoin gains in its net income, which could significantly enhance its earnings profile.

As of June 25, 2025, MicroStrategy holds 592,345 bitcoins valued at over $63.5 billion, making its earnings heavily reliant on Bitcoin's market performance.

For MSTR to qualify for the S&P 500, it needs to demonstrate positive earnings over the last four quarters, a challenging task given its recent net losses.

Despite favorable accounting changes, MSTR's previous Q1 earnings fell short of S&P requirements due to Bitcoin's lower closing price at the end of that quarter.

Bitcoin's recent volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions, briefly caused its price to dip below $100,000, but it rebounded to approximately $106,200 as of June 25.

Statistical analysis shows that Bitcoin has only dropped more than 10% in a six-day period 8.7% of the time since 2014, suggesting a strong likelihood of maintaining its current price.

If MSTR successfully enters the S&P 500, it would serve as a proxy for Bitcoin, allowing traditional asset managers to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding it.

MicroStrategy has received a 'Strong Buy' rating from analysts, with an average price target suggesting a 39.2% upside from its recent trading price.

If successful, MicroStrategy would become the second crypto-related company to join the S&P 500 in 2025, following Coinbase's inclusion in May.

Inclusion in the S&P 500 could lead to significant institutional investment, as index funds would be required to purchase MSTR shares, enhancing its market credibility.

As the end of the quarter approaches, the odds that Bitcoin will not drop 10% increase significantly, reaching up to 97.6% by June 29 if Bitcoin remains stable.