Quantum Computers Could Break Bitcoin's Security by 2027, Experts Warn

October 16, 2025
Quantum Computers Could Break Bitcoin's Security by 2027, Experts Warn
  • Speaking at TOKEN2049, Edwards emphasizes that only around 700 usable qubits may be needed for quantum machines to crack Bitcoin's cryptography, risking the security of holdings including Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated 1 million BTC.

  • Hackers could record blockchain data today and wait for quantum computing to advance, enabling decryption of private keys later and amplifying the urgency of the threat.

  • Research suggests that between 700 and 2,300 logical qubits are required for quantum computers to run Shor’s algorithm effectively, which could reconstruct private keys from public keys.

  • Major tech giants like Google, IBM, and Chinese state labs are actively developing quantum computers nearing the threshold that could compromise Bitcoin’s encryption.

  • The critical moment, known as 'Q-Day,' will occur when quantum computers can break Bitcoin’s cryptography, turning exposed public keys into targets for hackers.

  • Industry estimates suggest a 2 to 10-year window for quantum threats to threaten Bitcoin, with some experts indicating a 50% risk within 4-9 years, prompting urgent calls for quantum-resistant solutions.

  • Quantum-resistant ledgers like QRL, which use post-quantum cryptography such as XMSS, are gaining attention as vital solutions; QRL’s value has surged and could surpass Bitcoin if quantum threats are not mitigated.

  • Failure to address the quantum threat could lead to catastrophic thefts, especially targeting large wallets like Satoshi’s, undermining trust and risking a market collapse.

  • Some experts estimate that quantum machines capable of threatening Bitcoin could arrive within 2-3 years, making timely preventative measures crucial.

  • Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments warns that quantum computers could potentially break Bitcoin's elliptic curve cryptography by 2027-2028, posing a significant security threat to the digital asset.

  • Edwards warns that the deadline to address this issue is 2026, emphasizing that once quantum computers surpass the security threshold, the damage will be irreversible.

  • Overall, the threat posed by quantum computing is imminent, with potential to fundamentally alter the security landscape of cryptocurrencies if proactive steps are not taken.

Summary based on 2 sources


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